Tue, Feb 7, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Anaheim Ducks 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 28 | 08 | 11 | 326 |
| CHI | 06 | 212 | 011 | 00 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:36CHIJason DickinsonAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 8:25ANABrett LeasonAssists: Jayson Megna, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 13:09CHISeth JonesAssists: Jason Dickinson, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 15:42ANAJayson MegnaAssists: Brett Leason · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 2:15ANAFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Isac Lundeström, John Klingberg · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:29CHIBoris Katchouk: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 13:22ANAMason McTavish: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:46ANAJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:28ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Comtois – Lundeström11:28
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Grant – Megna – Leason7:47
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Henrique – Strome – Zegras10:30
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
- Vatrano – Jones – McTavish10:16
xG 0.32–0.63 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Klingberg3:15
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Benoit2:05
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Benoit12:55
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Johnson – Dickinson11:49
xG 0.69–0.09 (88%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Domi – Raddysh – Kurashev12:38
xG 0.75–0.36 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Kane – Johnson – Domi2:19
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Athanasiou – Lafferty8:45
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jones17:08
xG 0.93–0.31 (75%)attempts 20–7goals 2–1
- Jones – Mitchell14:30
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Johnson – Murphy14:53
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).