Wed, Feb 8, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 115 | 015 | 139 |
| DAL | 014 | 312 | 111 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:23DALJamie BennAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 5:40DALRadek FaksaGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Mason Marchment · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 10:54DALJani HakanpääAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 18:16MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 17:49DALRoope HintzENAssists: Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.79 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:58DALRadek Faksa: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:46DALMiro Heiskanen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:53DALMason Marchment: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:44MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:46MINJordan Greenway: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek8:40
xG 1.02–0.42 (71%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov13:14
xG 0.70–0.16 (81%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Duhaime – Dewar7:25
xG 0.39–0.43 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Steel – Boldy10:28
xG 0.12–1.43 (8%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton12:27
xG 0.90–0.21 (81%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Dumba – Middleton2:16
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Merrill – Addison10:13
xG 0.34–0.69 (33%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:46
xG 0.82–0.26 (76%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Glendening – Gurianov – Studenic6:12
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston8:22
xG 0.48–0.20 (71%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Seguin – Faksa – Marchment9:25
xG 0.40–0.99 (29%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist13:02
xG 1.09–0.34 (76%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell11:03
xG 0.61–0.29 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 3–0
- Miller – Heiskanen15:50
xG 0.25–1.31 (16%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).