Thu, Feb 9, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
San Jose Sharks 1, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 115 | 010 | 09 | 134 |
| FLA | 011 | 218 | 213 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:49SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 4:30FLASam ReinhartAssists: Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 19:19FLASam ReinhartGWGAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 18:21FLAEric StaalENAssists: Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.80 xG1–3
- P3 18:55FLAEric StaalENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:25FLAGivani Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 3:21SJSJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:21FLAGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:23SJSNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:08FLAAaron Ekblad: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Meier – Gregor10:23
xG 0.92–0.72 (56%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
- Couture – Eyssimont – Barabanov10:46
xG 0.93–0.84 (53%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov3:00
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Bonino – Lindblom – Sturm9:39
xG 0.26–0.47 (36%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Benning12:50
xG 0.70–0.28 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Harrington11:10
xG 1.13–1.00 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 0–2
- Harrington – MacDonald2:58
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell12:05
xG 1.18–0.72 (62%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Staal – Cousins – Lomberg10:57
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Tierney – White – Smith6:54
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk14:41
xG 0.93–1.38 (40%)attempts 18–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling14:29
xG 1.08–0.85 (56%)attempts 21–14goals 2–0
- Gudas – Mahura12:53
xG 0.69–0.86 (44%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Staal – Montour18:27
xG 0.86–1.10 (44%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).