Thu, Feb 9, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 19 | 414 | 08 | 531 |
| MIN | 07 | 115 | 06 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:07VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Brett Howden · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 2:41VGKAlex PietrangeloGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 4:37MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–1
- P2 10:47VGKPaul CotterAssists: Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 12:53VGKReilly SmithUnassisted · Snap, 0.28 xG4–1
- P2 13:13VGKJack EichelAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Zach Whitecloud · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P2 4:24VGKChandler Stephenson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:20VGKWilliam Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:20MINRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:20VGKNicolas Hague: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:20MINJake Middleton: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:53MINAlex Goligoski: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 14:53VGKWilliam Karlsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:00MINMatt Boldy: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Eichel – Cotter11:44
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 3–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Carrier9:46
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Howden12:35
xG 0.14–0.24 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Amadio8:38
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud15:32
xG 0.74–0.21 (78%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo18:06
xG 0.54–0.69 (44%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- McNabb – Theodore17:26
xG 0.43–0.63 (41%)attempts 9–22goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Steel – Boldy14:21
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:45
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:28
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 11–9goals 0–3
- Reaves – Duhaime – Dewar7:59
xG 0.16–0.32 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dumba20:17
xG 0.81–0.70 (54%)attempts 22–13goals 0–2
- Spurgeon – Middleton17:42
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
- Merrill – Addison13:18
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).