Fri, Feb 10, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 114 | 014 | 213 | 341 |
| CBJ | 06 | 015 | 09 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45TORJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Michael Bunting · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 7:49TORPierre EngvallAssists: Morgan Rielly, David Kampf · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 8:38TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:34TORZachary Aston-Reese: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:03CBJMathieu Olivier: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:37CBJCole Sillinger: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:22CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Interference2 min
- P2 12:08TORTimothy Liljegren: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 14:38CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:38CBJBoone Jenner: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Kerfoot – Nylander9:42
xG 0.80–0.18 (82%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Engvall – Anderson – Kampf9:30
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Aston-Reese – Holmberg – Steeves8:25
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bunting – Marner10:19
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Holl12:02
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Sandin12:18
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Brodie – Holl2:56
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Bemstrom – Sillinger3:47
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Jenner – Marchenko – Johnson5:35
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Laine – Foudy4:14
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson8:24
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Berni13:56
xG 0.71–0.55 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Blankenburg8:43
xG 0.16–0.23 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Blankenburg2:11
xG 0.04–0.30 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).