Fri, Feb 10, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Anaheim Ducks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 325 | 118 | 216 | 659 |
| ANA | 18 | 010 | 213 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:03PITPierre-Olivier JosephAssists: Teddy Blueger, Josh Archibald · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:26ANATrevor ZegrasPPAssists: Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 17:38PITKasperi KapanenPPAssists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 19:47PITJeff CarterAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 14:55PITPierre-Olivier JosephGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 10:04PITBryan RustAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Chad Ruhwedel · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–1
- P3 12:08PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–1
- P3 13:34ANAMason McTavishAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–2
- P3 15:58ANAJohn KlingbergAssists: Mason McTavish, Jakob Silfverberg · Snap, 0.05 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:43ANAMason McTavish: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 15:24PITKasperi Kapanen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:59ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:59ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:59PITMark Friedman: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:57ANAJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min
- P3 19:13PITBrian Dumoulin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel15:16
xG 1.65–0.28 (85%)attempts 34–5goals 1–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust10:54
xG 0.54–0.33 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 2–2
- Archibald – Blueger – Poehling7:06
xG 0.48–0.34 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Carter – McGinn – Kapanen10:33
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Pettersson11:46
xG 1.13–0.39 (74%)attempts 25–8goals 1–1
- Dumoulin – Friedman17:55
xG 1.05–0.37 (74%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Joseph12:22
xG 0.66–0.77 (46%)attempts 17–10goals 4–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Strome – Zegras4:03
xG 0.44–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Strome – Zegras7:05
xG 0.15–0.19 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – McTavish2:27
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Grant – Megna – Leason5:54
xG 0.14–0.25 (35%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Benoit14:11
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Fowler14:49
xG 0.55–1.40 (28%)attempts 9–32goals 0–2
- Klingberg – White15:32
xG 0.35–1.51 (19%)attempts 8–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).