Sat, Feb 11, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 2, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 14 | 010 | 223 |
| BOS | 07 | 111 | 010 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–0
- P2 11:40WSHGarnet HathawayGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 16:34BOSNick FolignoAssists: Connor Clifton, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:04WSHErik Gustafsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:20BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 5:20WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:24BOSCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:48BOSHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P2 12:04BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:32BOSHampus Lindholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:45WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P3 8:10WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:37BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:37WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:34WSHMartin Fehérváry: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Aube-Kubel – Strome9:18
xG 0.87–0.30 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Mantha – Hathaway8:58
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Milano8:36
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Sheary8:43
xG 0.27–0.86 (24%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen10:17
xG 0.95–0.46 (67%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry7:38
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:03
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Coyle – Hall9:02
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith7:19
xG 0.43–0.39 (53%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Krejci – Hall – Pastrnak2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Greer – Frederic – Lauko3:58
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy13:21
xG 0.85–0.21 (81%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Forbort – Clifton7:56
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Clifton3:41
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).