Sat, Feb 11, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 04 | 321 | 115 | 440 |
| TOR | 211 | 010 | 18 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:40TORMichael BuntingAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 4:21CBJBoone JennerAssists: Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 15:01CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Boone Jenner, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 15:58CBJSean KuralyAssists: Kent Johnson, Mathieu Olivier · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 1:20TORMorgan RiellyPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 5:46CBJKent JohnsonGWGAssists: Cole Sillinger, Jack Roslovic · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:55TORJustin Holl: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:40TORWilliam Nylander: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:13CBJSean Kuraly: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:13TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:46CBJJohnny Gaudreau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:41TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:48TORMichael Bunting: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko12:39
xG 0.79–0.30 (72%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Laine – Johnson – Sillinger3:52
xG 0.12–0.11 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson12:01
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Laine – Foudy5:22
xG 0.03–0.52 (6%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Berni13:05
xG 1.19–0.83 (59%)attempts 23–10goals 3–1
- Gudbranson – Blankenburg3:44
xG 0.12–0.10 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Blankenburg9:26
xG 0.28–0.59 (33%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Kerfoot – Nylander8:13
xG 0.68–0.13 (84%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Tavares – Bunting – Marner11:32
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Aston-Reese – Holmberg – Steeves5:49
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Bunting – Marner2:22
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Holl12:25
xG 0.82–0.36 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Liljegren – Sandin11:15
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly14:32
xG 0.53–0.80 (40%)attempts 15–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).