Sat, Feb 11, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 6, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 14 | 46 | 619 |
| CAR | 013 | 212 | 04 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:37NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 6:50CARTeuvo TeravainenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 9:43CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Calvin de Haan, Andrei Svechnikov · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 17:49NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 4:33NYRArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Braden Schneider, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 15:59NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 17:46NYRKaapo KakkoENAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–2
- P3 18:56NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.16 xG6–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:49CARJalen Chatfield: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:19NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:43NYRArtemi Panarin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Vesey – Panarin5:01
xG 0.63–0.03 (96%)attempts 6–4goals 4–0
- Tarasenko – Zibanejad – Panarin7:01
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gauthier – Leschyshyn8:47
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière12:22
xG 0.46–0.63 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller18:18
xG 0.93–0.75 (55%)attempts 16–19goals 2–2
- Mikkola – Schneider16:31
xG 0.67–1.15 (37%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Fox – Lindgren15:45
xG 0.24–1.33 (15%)attempts 4–24goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Jarvis13:17
xG 0.98–0.47 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2
- Staal – Fast – Martinook11:58
xG 0.53–0.12 (81%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen9:47
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov12:36
xG 0.66–0.90 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin19:10
xG 1.00–0.31 (77%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce17:56
xG 1.45–0.84 (63%)attempts 23–9goals 0–3
- de Haan – Chatfield13:37
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).