Sat, Feb 11, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New Jersey Devils 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 29 | 09 | 03 | 0 | 229 |
| MIN | 17 | 08 | 17 | 02 | 2 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Calen Addison, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 2:45NJDTomas TatarAssists: Ondrej Palat, Dougie Hamilton · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 6:04NJDTomas TatarAssists: Damon Severson, Jesper Boqvist · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 5:25MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mathew Dumba, Jonas Brodin · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello scored
- 2. NJD Tomas Tatar stopped
- 3. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 4. NJD Jesper Bratt stopped
- 5. MIN Frederick Gaudreau scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:04NJDMiles Wood: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:44MINKirill Kaprizov: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:40MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min
- P2 3:45NJDNathan Bastian: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:45MINRyan Hartman: Instigator2 min
- P2 3:45NJDNathan Bastian: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:45MINRyan Hartman: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:45MINRyan Hartman: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:19NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hischier4:24
xG 0.23–0.05 (83%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Palat – Hischier – Mercer9:29
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod7:45
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Tatar – Boqvist – Mercer2:51
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Graves3:40
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Marino – Bahl4:44
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler13:24
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:01
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Eriksson Ek – Duhaime – Boldy8:39
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Boldy2:28
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Steel – Shaw – Dewar7:12
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba18:39
xG 1.02–0.46 (69%)attempts 20–14goals 1–2
- Spurgeon – Middleton16:52
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Merrill – Addison10:19
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).