Sat, Feb 11, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 013 | 19 | 132 |
| WPG | 06 | 313 | 19 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:16WPGJosh MorrisseyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 7:33WPGBlake WheelerPPGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Deflected, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 12:09WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 2:08CHITyler JohnsonAssists: Jake McCabe, Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 19:35WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Morgan Barron, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.78 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:18WPGNeal Pionk: Interference2 min
- P2 3:07WPGKevin Stenlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:46CHITyler Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:02CHISam Lafferty: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 17:06WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:27WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:27CHIJarred Tinordi: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Raddysh – Kurashev10:55
xG 0.66–0.53 (55%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Johnson – Dickinson11:54
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
- Blackwell – Athanasiou – Lafferty11:00
xG 0.43–0.66 (39%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Entwistle – Johnson7:04
xG 0.09–0.45 (16%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jones13:22
xG 0.82–0.43 (66%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Murphy – Jones2:24
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Jones2:23
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMaenalanen – Stenlund – Appleton5:51
xG 0.49–0.09 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lowry – Barron – Kuhlman8:15
xG 0.23–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Connor – Dubois – Perfetti10:20
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers11:28
xG 0.81–1.19 (40%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Stanley11:45
xG 0.90–0.31 (74%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Dillon – Samberg11:31
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Stanley2:06
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).