Sun, Feb 12, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Anaheim Ducks 2, Vegas Golden Knights 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 05 | 19 | 111 | 225 |
| VGK | 112 | 111 | 516 | 739 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:08VGKPaul CotterAssists: Nicolas Hague, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 8:07VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Nicolas Roy · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 16:03ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Isac Lundeström, Colton White · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 6:40VGKShea TheodoreGWGAssists: Michael Amadio, William Karlsson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 8:11VGKPhil KesselAssists: William Carrier, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 11:53VGKJack EichelAssists: Reilly Smith, Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 13:34ANAIsac LundeströmAssists: Derek Grant, Trevor Zegras · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 14:23VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–6
- P3 15:42VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:53ANATrevor Zegras: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:55VGKChandler Stephenson: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:11VGKNicolas Roy: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:28ANATrevor Zegras: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 19:29VGKNicolas Hague: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Henrique – Silfverberg – McTavish12:06
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Vatrano – Jones – Lundeström8:22
xG 0.34–0.68 (33%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Carrick – Megna – Leason6:40
xG 0.11–0.66 (14%)attempts 7–12goals 0–3
- Grant – Strome – Zegras12:58
xG 0.32–0.91 (26%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Beaulieu – White10:16
xG 0.36–0.55 (39%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
- Shattenkirk – Benoit16:29
xG 0.54–1.09 (33%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Fowler15:35
xG 0.15–0.95 (14%)attempts 8–21goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Stephenson – Carrier10:01
xG 0.99–0.13 (89%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Howden11:09
xG 0.55–0.12 (82%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Amadio8:25
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Marchessault – Eichel – Cotter12:19
xG 0.63–0.61 (51%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore18:36
xG 0.93–0.18 (84%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Hague – Whitecloud15:42
xG 1.22–0.67 (64%)attempts 26–14goals 3–1
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:22
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).