Mon, Feb 13, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Florida Panthers 2, Minnesota Wild 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 018 | 18 | 08 | 00 | 2 | 234 |
| MIN | 010 | 110 | 05 | 03 | 1 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:06FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Gustav Forsling, Nick Cousins · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 5:15MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Calen Addison · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello scored
- 2. FLA Anton Lundell scored
- 3. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 5. MIN Frederick Gaudreau stopped
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:31MINJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:18FLACarter Verhaeghe: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:10MINFrederick Gaudreau: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:07FLAGustav Forsling: Interference2 min
- P2 8:12MINMatt Boldy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:18FLABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:59FLASam Reinhart: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:04MINJonas Brodin: Interference2 min
- P3 1:04MINJonas Brodin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:21MINJon Merrill: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:25MINJordan Greenway: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:25FLARadko Gudas: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 16:01MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:01FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk7:43
xG 0.69–0.33 (68%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Cousins – Lomberg – Luostarinen5:37
xG 0.41–0.39 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Staal – Smith – Denisenko3:12
xG 0.02–0.10 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Lundell7:54
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura5:37
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Montour8:19
xG 0.53–0.16 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling2:11
xG 0.04–0.01 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov4:26
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar3:36
xG 0.13–0.00 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Duhaime – Boldy5:22
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Greenway3:29
xG 0.06–0.22 (21%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton9:54
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Merrill – Addison7:27
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba10:32
xG 0.35–0.46 (44%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).