Mon, Feb 13, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Buffalo Sabres 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 011 | 213 | 229 |
| LAK | 07 | 410 | 111 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:20LAKAdrian KempeSHAssists: Blake Lizotte · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 12:35LAKArthur KaliyevPPAssists: Phillip Danault, Viktor Arvidsson · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 18:41LAKSean WalkerGWGAssists: Phillip Danault, Viktor Arvidsson · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 19:14LAKMatt RoyAssists: Adrian Kempe, Quinton Byfield · Slap, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 5:14LAKViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Phillip Danault, Sean Durzi · Poke, 0.20 xG0–5
- P3 10:16BUFDylan CozensAssists: Victor Olofsson, Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 15:09BUFPeyton KrebsPPAssists: Victor Olofsson, Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.18 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:23LAKArthur Kaliyev: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:41LAKAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:28BUFZemgus Girgensons: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:14LAKMikey Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:28BUFVictor Olofsson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 14:09LAKKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:51BUFPeyton Krebs: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:21LAKViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:05BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:05LAKAlex Iafallo: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestAsplund – Jost – Quinn4:10
xG 0.96–0.20 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Cozens2:47
xG 0.63–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Okposo – Thompson – Mittelstadt6:45
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs4:19
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClague – Lyubushkin9:00
xG 1.38–0.06 (96%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Dahlin10:42
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Power3:39
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore9:42
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield11:04
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Fiala – Iafallo – Lizotte8:26
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Fiala – Arvidsson – Lizotte2:50
xG 0.01–0.21 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Durzi12:56
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Edler – Walker10:14
xG 0.34–0.72 (32%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Doughty – Anderson18:33
xG 0.67–1.86 (26%)attempts 12–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).