Tue, Feb 14, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 07 | 09 | 022 |
| MTL | 16 | 013 | 312 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:38MTLJustin BarronPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 5:45MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Christian Dvorak · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 10:53MTLDavid SavardAssists: Alex Belzile, Jordan Harris · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 11:45MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Joel Armia, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:38MTLJosh Anderson: Instigator2 min
- P1 4:38MTLJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:38MTLJosh Anderson: Misconduct10 min
- P1 4:38CHIConnor Murphy: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 6:56CHIAndreas Athanasiou: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:17MTLJoel Armia: Interference2 min
- P2 4:34MTLJoel Armia: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:30MTLJake Allen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:02CHIPhilipp Kurashev: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:11CHIMax Domi: Interference2 min
- P3 19:17MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:17CHIReese Johnson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dach won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Athanasiou – Lafferty3:11
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Domi – Raddysh2:04
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kane – Johnson – Dickinson4:43
xG 0.03–0.01 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Entwistle – Johnson3:26
xG 0.04–0.04 (53%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTinordi – Jones2:36
xG 0.20–0.04 (84%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- McCabe – Jones2:36
xG 0.07–0.05 (61%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Jones2:54
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Drouin – Dvorak7:36
xG 0.46–0.03 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard8:17
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Belzile – Pezzetta – Ylonen5:41
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Dach10:49
xG 0.41–0.44 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Barron11:00
xG 0.68–0.08 (89%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Wideman – Kovacevic13:18
xG 0.78–0.46 (63%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Savard – Harris12:20
xG 0.15–0.44 (26%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).