Tue, Feb 14, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Seattle Kraken 2, Winnipeg Jets 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 010 | 27 | 09 | 03 | 0 | 229 |
| WPG | 012 | 113 | 113 | 02 | 2 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:01WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 13:20SEAJohn HaydenAssists: Morgan Geekie, Jamie Oleksiak · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 19:33SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Eeli Tolvanen · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 9:39WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WPG Mark Scheifele scored
- 2. SEA Ryan Donato stopped
- 3. WPG Kyle Connor stopped
- 4. SEA Jordan Eberle stopped
- 5. WPG Pierre-Luc Dubois scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:06WPGDylan DeMelo: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:54WPGMorgan Barron: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 2:31SEAJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:02SEAEeli Tolvanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:46WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:58SEAOliver Bjorkstrand: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Hayden – Donato – Geekie4:58
xG 0.16–0.17 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers7:39
xG 0.51–0.56 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen9:36
xG 0.58–0.90 (39%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Tanev9:42
xG 0.26–0.68 (27%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oleksiak – Borgen11:36
xG 0.52–0.54 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Schultz – Borgen2:13
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Schultz – Soucy10:30
xG 0.36–0.67 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Appleton – Barron7:26
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Connor – Dubois – Perfetti8:49
xG 0.76–0.14 (85%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois4:31
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Appleton2:15
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – DeMelo12:42
xG 1.09–0.47 (70%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk12:47
xG 0.89–0.53 (63%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Samberg7:29
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).