Tue, Feb 14, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Boston Bruins 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 115 | 09 | 112 | 11 | 337 |
| DAL | 16 | 110 | 09 | 06 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:33BOSTaylor HallAssists: Hampus Lindholm, David Krejci · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 13:11DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 4:17DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 10:12BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Brandon Carlo, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 3:44BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:33DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:01BOSNick Foligno: Holding2 min
- P2 8:06DALColin Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:15BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:18BOSConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:05DALMason Marchment: High sticking2 min
- OT 0:32BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Frederic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Frederic – Lauko4:18
xG 0.46–0.04 (91%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha3:15
xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Foligno – Smith – Coyle7:57
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Hall – Zacha6:41
xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy13:11
xG 0.61–0.20 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Clifton3:24
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo12:20
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 13–18goals 2–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:09
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Glendening – Gurianov – Studenic7:26
xG 0.06–0.25 (20%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston8:50
xG 0.15–0.52 (23%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Seguin – Faksa – Marchment10:24
xG 0.35–0.74 (32%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist9:34
xG 0.37–0.23 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell14:05
xG 0.26–0.40 (39%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Suter – Heiskanen5:25
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).