Tue, Feb 14, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 112 | 17 | 328 |
| SJS | 010 | 017 | 112 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52PITRickard RakellAssists: Jeff Petry, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 11:33PITJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 15:57SJSTimo MeierUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 19:22PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.74 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:42SJSNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:51SJSLogan Couture: Holding2 min
- P2 8:13PITJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:36SJSNoah Gregor: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:25PITRickard Rakell: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel12:54
xG 0.88–0.44 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Archibald – Blueger – O'Connor7:09
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Carter – McGinn – Kapanen8:14
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust9:07
xG 0.44–0.98 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Pettersson15:15
xG 0.66–0.73 (47%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Ruhwedel – Joseph12:16
xG 0.53–0.78 (40%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin15:37
xG 0.63–1.16 (35%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Hertl – Meier13:11
xG 1.55–0.41 (79%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Labanc – Svechnikov – Lorentz3:57
xG 0.03–0.31 (10%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Couture – Eyssimont – Barabanov11:28
xG 0.61–0.91 (40%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Lindblom – Gregor – Sturm7:56
xG 0.03–0.33 (8%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Benning8:16
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Karlsson – MacDonald8:44
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Benning2:43
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).