Wed, Feb 15, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 24 | 09 | 319 |
| MIN | 017 | 113 | 113 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:14COLAndrew CoglianoAssists: Devon Toews, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 2:20COLDenis MalginAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Josh Manson · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 7:09MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Matt Boldy · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 16:29COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 14:07MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jonas Brodin · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:06COLJ.T. Compher: Interference2 min
- P1 12:38MINMatt Boldy: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:38COLBowen Byram: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:09MINMason Shaw: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:50COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin9:37
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Nieto – MacKinnon – Malgin3:08
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Newhook9:03
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Compher – Rantanen – Rodrigues13:43
xG 0.25–0.82 (24%)attempts 5–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Toews2:14
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Hunt – Englund5:12
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Manson – Toews2:43
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:18
xG 0.33–0.01 (98%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Greenway – Steel8:07
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 0–2
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Boldy5:58
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Shaw – Dewar3:55
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Merrill8:56
xG 0.65–0.12 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Brodin4:03
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba15:30
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).