Thu, Feb 16, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Winnipeg Jets 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 112 | 012 | 014 | 138 |
| CBJ | 02 | 114 | 28 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:58WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 10:00CBJPatrik LainePPAssists: Adam Boqvist, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 9:40CBJKent JohnsonGWGAssists: Jack Roslovic, Emil Bemstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 19:57CBJBoone JennerENAssists: Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.79 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 17:57CBJLiam Foudy: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:28CBJErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:01WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:05WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:33CBJAndrew Peeke: Holding2 min
- P2 13:39CBJErik Gudbranson: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:03WPGDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P3 1:49CBJSean Kuraly: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:07CBJGavin Bayreuther: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:50WPGKyle Connor: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:30WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:23CBJNick Blankenburg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti12:19
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois8:41
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Lowry – Appleton – Barron7:30
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Maenalanen – Stenlund3:31
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – DeMelo9:49
xG 0.49–0.11 (81%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Samberg7:29
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey2:36
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestLaine – Johnson – Sillinger5:45
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Laine3:57
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Bemstrom – Foudy4:31
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko6:04
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBayreuther – Boqvist6:50
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Peeke – Blankenburg13:35
xG 0.26–0.49 (34%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Berni15:12
xG 0.44–0.99 (31%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).