Thu, Feb 16, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Boston Bruins 5, Nashville Predators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 118 | 37 | 15 | 530 |
| NSH | 08 | 010 | 010 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 1:11BOSCraig SmithAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 8:06BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 11:15BOSDerek ForbortAssists: Nick Foligno, Matt Grzelcyk · Deflected, 0.01 xG4–0
- P3 13:47BOSTrent FredericAssists: Nick Foligno, Hampus Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:04BOSTrent Frederic: Holding2 min
- P1 8:29BOSTaylor Hall: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:47NSHRoman Josi: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:08NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:44NSHRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:24NSHDante Fabbro: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:45BOSJakub Lauko: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:47NSHTanner Jeannot: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith7:35
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Foligno – Coyle – Hall8:32
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Greer – Frederic – Lauko8:40
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha7:53
xG 0.17–0.70 (19%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy12:36
xG 0.61–0.12 (83%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Carlo12:43
xG 0.64–0.53 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Forbort – Clifton10:51
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Parssinen – Smith8:15
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot9:17
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Glass – Tomasino7:16
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Granlund7:38
xG 0.19–0.47 (29%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ekholm4:04
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro2:58
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Josi13:33
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).