Thu, Feb 16, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
San Jose Sharks 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 04 | 19 | 013 | 126 |
| VGK | 014 | 08 | 216 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:04SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P3 6:22VGKPaul CotterAssists: Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 19:42VGKWilliam CarrierGWGAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:33SJSMario Ferraro: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:14SJSTomas Hertl: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:40VGKBrett Howden: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:39SJSMichael Eyssimont: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:34SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:03SJSNoah Gregor: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:42SJSJacob MacDonald: Holding2 min
- P3 9:27SJSTimo Meier: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:42SJSNick Bonino: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Eyssimont – Barabanov7:04
xG 0.89–0.24 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Lindblom – Svechnikov – Lorentz3:33
xG 0.03–0.03 (55%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hertl – Labanc – Meier8:48
xG 0.56–0.57 (49%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov2:48
xG 0.01–0.20 (3%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Benning9:29
xG 1.12–0.40 (74%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Ferraro – Cicek8:51
xG 0.11–0.38 (23%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Karlsson – MacDonald17:03
xG 0.62–0.90 (41%)attempts 19–21goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Eichel – Cotter8:06
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Howden7:52
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Amadio8:10
xG 0.56–0.73 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Carrier6:37
xG 0.12–0.48 (20%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud13:14
xG 1.04–0.30 (77%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:19
xG 0.57–0.61 (49%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo11:18
xG 0.27–0.80 (25%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).