Fri, Feb 17, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 1, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 011 | 19 | 03 | 1 | 130 |
| MIN | 08 | 017 | 14 | 03 | 2 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 6:37MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Alex Goligoski · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 10:24DALJamie BennAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 3. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 4. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
- 5. MIN Frederick Gaudreau scored
- 6. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 7. MIN Matt Boldy scored
- 8. DAL Wyatt Johnston stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:13MINMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:06MINAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:17MINMatt Boldy: Interference2 min
- P1 16:17DALMason Marchment: Holding2 min
- P2 5:49MINJon Merrill: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:01DALJani Hakanpää: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:36MINMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:53DALColin Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 3:33MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- OT 3:33DALMason Marchment: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Faksa – Marchment9:28
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:45
xG 0.10–0.16 (40%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston8:25
xG 0.34–0.50 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Glendening – Gurianov – Karlstrom5:28
xG 0.03–0.20 (13%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist11:12
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Heiskanen15:00
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell15:33
xG 0.38–0.51 (42%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Beckman – Boldy8:39
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Boldy2:21
xG 0.13–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar5:39
xG 0.19–0.16 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Greenway – Duhaime8:45
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Merrill8:40
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Brodin – Dumba14:24
xG 0.21–0.08 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton11:26
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).