Fri, Feb 17, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New York Rangers 5, Edmonton Oilers 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 113 | 112 | 210 | 03 | 2 | 538 |
| EDM | 412 | 09 | 02 | 06 | 1 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:52EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 12:11EDMTyson BarrieAssists: Warren Foegele, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 12:30EDMDerek RyanAssists: Zach Hyman, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P1 13:36NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P1 18:27EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 6:26NYRChris KreiderSHAssists: Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 1:36NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Filip Chytil · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 13:10NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.14 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored
- 2. NYR Kaapo Kakko scored
- 3. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
- 4. NYR Artemi Panarin stopped
- 5. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 6. EDM Tyson Barrie stopped
- 7. NYR Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 8. EDM Derek Ryan stopped
- 9. NYR Filip Chytil stopped
- 10. EDM Kailer Yamamoto stopped
- 11. NYR Alexis Lafrenière scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:36NYRVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:08EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:55NYRK'Andre Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 5:55NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Holding2 min
- P2 11:14EDMKailer Yamamoto: Interference2 min
- P3 12:16EDMMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:53EDMDerek Ryan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 3:59NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Vesey – Panarin14:09
xG 1.19–0.13 (90%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière10:30
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Kreider – Tarasenko – Zibanejad11:11
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gauthier – Leschyshyn5:51
xG 0.05–0.55 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren16:09
xG 1.18–0.32 (79%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller17:36
xG 0.58–0.55 (52%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Mikkola – Schneider12:58
xG 0.22–0.91 (20%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:19
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Janmark – Foegele – McLeod10:07
xG 0.87–0.76 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto11:43
xG 0.20–1.06 (16%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse19:26
xG 0.95–0.80 (54%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Broberg12:29
xG 0.22–0.46 (32%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Barrie – Kulak13:53
xG 0.49–0.95 (34%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).