Fri, Feb 17, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 6, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 114 | 213 | 314 | 641 |
| ANA | 05 | 112 | 210 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:22LAKBlake LizotteAssists: Alex Iafallo, Kevin Fiala · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 5:52ANAKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Frank Vatrano · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 12:56LAKViktor ArvidssonAssists: Trevor Moore · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 17:53LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 2:28ANAMason McTavishPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Trevor Zegras · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 9:44LAKAnze KopitarPPGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 13:10ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 15:30LAKViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Sean Durzi, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 18:47LAKKevin FialaENAssists: Alex Iafallo, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.72 xG6–3
Penalties (13)
- P2 1:22ANATrevor Zegras: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:45ANATrevor Zegras: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:36LAKPheonix Copley: Match penalty5 min · PPG
- P2 19:36LAKPheonix Copley: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 19:36ANAMax Jones: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:36LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:36ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:36ANAJohn Gibson: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 19:36LAKMikey Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:51LAKBlake Lizotte: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:51ANADerek Grant: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:30ANADerek Grant: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- P3 13:31ANARyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Iafallo – Lizotte9:21
xG 1.37–0.21 (87%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Vilardi – Kupari – Kaliyev10:09
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Moore10:56
xG 0.73–0.86 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield9:24
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson20:20
xG 1.05–0.65 (62%)attempts 23–19goals 1–0
- Roy – Durzi13:01
xG 1.15–0.87 (57%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Edler – Walker11:23
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Vatrano – Lundeström9:59
xG 0.69–0.37 (65%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Henrique – Jones – McTavish9:37
xG 0.43–0.54 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Carrick – Megna – Leason5:48
xG 0.06–0.51 (11%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Grant – Strome – Zegras11:56
xG 0.30–1.00 (23%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Klingberg2:00
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Fowler11:58
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Klingberg – White14:47
xG 0.41–1.05 (28%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).