Sat, Feb 18, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 115 | 19 | 29 | 433 |
| STL | 05 | 19 | 06 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:37COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 7:37COLBowen ByramGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 15:28STLSammy BlaisAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Logan Brown · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 2:56COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon · Deflected, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 9:40COLBowen ByramPPAssists: Samuel Girard, J.T. Compher · Snap, 0.10 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:16COLJ.T. Compher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:04STLTyler Tucker: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:34COLKurtis MacDermid: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:24STLRobert Thomas: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:21STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:07STLNick Leddy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:54COLJ.T. Compher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Rantanen – Rodrigues9:51
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin8:35
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Newhook5:12
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Nieto – Malgin – Meyers3:49
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram7:58
xG 0.70–0.09 (89%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar12:19
xG 0.74–0.46 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Toews – Byram3:45
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLeivo – Brown – Neighbours4:27
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko7:51
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Barbashev – Neighbours3:43
xG 0.05–0.37 (13%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Barbashev4:19
xG 0.08–0.48 (15%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Leddy – Parayko15:27
xG 0.50–0.65 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Leddy – Faulk2:00
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Tucker9:52
xG 0.11–0.37 (23%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).