Sat, Feb 18, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 2, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 112 | 110 | 228 |
| BOS | 312 | 36 | 09 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:19BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 9:15BOSNick FolignoAssists: Derek Forbort, A.J. Greer · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 17:19BOSTrent FredericGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Nick Foligno · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 6:46NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Anders Lee, Noah Dobson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 8:17BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 11:30BOSTrent FredericUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
- P2 18:31BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–6
- P3 13:42NYIMatt MartinAssists: Ryan Pulock, Andy Andreoff · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:40NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:02NYISebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:14BOSDerek Forbort: Holding2 min
- P2 7:42NYIScott Mayfield: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:46BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Lee – Horvat5:31
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Nelson3:58
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Johnston3:41
xG 0.00–0.02 (1%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching5:32
xG 0.18–0.21 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock15:28
xG 0.69–0.58 (54%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Aho – Dobson14:53
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Mayfield – Romanov16:34
xG 0.46–0.93 (33%)attempts 15–17goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Pastrnak – Zacha10:31
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greer – Frederic7:12
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–3goals 3–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk8:16
xG 0.25–0.24 (52%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Smith – Coyle – Hall10:02
xG 0.21–0.37 (37%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Clifton14:59
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Carlo15:56
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy14:17
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).