Sat, Feb 18, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 112 | 216 | 215 | 543 |
| PIT | 113 | 09 | 19 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:33PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 4:53NJDDawson MercerAssists: Nico Hischier, Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 3:47NJDDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 8:25NJDNico HischierSHGWGAssists: Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 8:39NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jack Hughes, Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 14:43PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 17:56NJDNico HischierENAssists: Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.79 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:05NJDJohn Marino: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:58NJDBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P1 11:43NJDRyan Graves: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:08PITJeff Carter: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:37PITMarcus Pettersson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:08NJDRyan Graves: Interference2 min
- P2 12:14PITJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:02NJDKevin Bahl: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBratt – Sharangovich – Hughes10:05
xG 0.68–0.21 (76%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer11:00
xG 0.90–0.46 (66%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Haula – Palat – Zetterlund11:43
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Wood – McLeod – Boqvist3:05
xG 0.02–0.11 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Bahl9:25
xG 0.59–0.03 (95%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Hamilton12:17
xG 0.81–0.34 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Graves – Marino17:37
xG 0.95–0.83 (53%)attempts 22–29goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust8:20
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Archibald – Blueger – McGinn8:31
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel13:27
xG 0.69–0.79 (46%)attempts 23–17goals 0–1
- Carter – Kapanen – O'Connor8:38
xG 0.19–1.02 (16%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin12:31
xG 0.63–0.25 (72%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Letang – Joseph2:05
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Pettersson13:33
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).