Sat, Feb 18, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Rangers 2, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 18 | 14 | 01 | 220 |
| CGY | 213 | 09 | 09 | 11 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 0:46CGYNazem KadriAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jakob Pelletier · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 16:53NYRVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 12:48NYRAlexis LafrenièrePPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Filip Chytil · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 1:28CGYMikael BacklundPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:51CGYTrevor Lewis: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:13NYRVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:58NYRK'Andre Miller: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:50CGYNazem Kadri: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00CGYNazem Kadri: Misconduct10 min
- OT 0:50NYRAdam Fox: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Vesey – Panarin8:11
xG 0.72–0.47 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Trocheck – Panarin5:53
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko3:01
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Chytil – Lafrenière2:34
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Mikkola – Schneider12:00
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller16:19
xG 0.54–0.66 (45%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Miller – Schneider2:08
xG 0.16–0.75 (17%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:48
xG 1.08–0.21 (84%)attempts 20–4goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Dube – Ruzicka8:27
xG 0.60–0.08 (88%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Ritchie9:23
xG 0.27–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier11:41
xG 0.79–0.99 (44%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Weegar17:01
xG 1.30–0.43 (75%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Stone – Zadorov14:30
xG 0.48–0.22 (68%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson16:14
xG 1.10–0.96 (53%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).