Sat, Feb 18, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Detroit Red Wings 2, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 05 | 18 | 223 |
| SEA | 110 | 210 | 16 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:50SEAJordan EberleAssists: Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:44DETPius SuterAssists: Jake Walman, Filip Zadina · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 2:05SEAJordan EberleAssists: Matty Beniers, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 19:52SEAJamie OleksiakGWGAssists: Matty Beniers, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 4:49SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Daniel Sprong, Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 17:39DETDylan LarkinAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 9:26SEAAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 14:01DETAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:40SEAVince Dunn: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 18:46DETDavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:29DETDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:29SEABrandon Tanev: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:29DETTyler Bertuzzi: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Suter – Zadina9:02
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Perron – Bertuzzi – Larkin3:27
xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Copp – Fabbri – Berggren3:02
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Rasmussen – Veleno2:13
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Oesterle13:19
xG 1.09–0.47 (70%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider12:10
xG 0.61–0.20 (76%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Hronek15:05
xG 0.48–0.72 (40%)attempts 13–25goals 0–2
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers9:34
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:18
xG 0.27–0.31 (47%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Donato – Sprong – Geekie7:21
xG 0.13–0.50 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Tanev11:13
xG 0.18–0.89 (17%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen13:30
xG 0.96–0.79 (55%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:45
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Schultz – Soucy10:50
xG 0.20–0.51 (28%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).