Sun, Feb 19, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 3, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 19 | 29 | 326 |
| MIN | 013 | 212 | 210 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:09MINBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:37MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 17:03NSHTommy NovakAssists: Kevin Gravel, Jeremy Lauzon · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 1:23MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 15:04NSHRoman JosiAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Tommy Novak · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 19:13NSHNino NiederreiterAssists: Roman Josi, Tommy Novak · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 19:39MINRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:09MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:20NSHDante Fabbro: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:11NSHJeremy Lauzon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:11NSHDante Fabbro: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:14MINConnor Dewar: Holding2 min
- P3 10:04NSHNino Niederreiter: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Glass – Tomasino5:36
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Novak – Parssinen – Smith4:41
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Novak – Parssinen2:07
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Duchene – Johansen – Granlund9:33
xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ekholm4:07
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Lauzon2:07
xG 0.06–0.10 (36%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gravel – Fabbro7:46
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:53
xG 0.70–0.20 (78%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1
- Gaudreau – Greenway – Duhaime6:09
xG 0.49–0.15 (76%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Eriksson Ek – Beckman – Boldy6:37
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar8:04
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:44
xG 0.89–0.36 (71%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Merrill9:32
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Middleton15:09
xG 0.38–0.40 (48%)attempts 10–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).