Sun, Feb 19, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 17 | 110 | 118 | 335 |
| CHI | 18 | 27 | 213 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:44CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:52TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 7:57CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Max Domi, Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 10:49CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Connor Murphy, Max Domi · Snap, 0.30 xG1–3
- P2 17:46TORNoel AcciariAssists: David Kampf, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 7:38TORMitch MarnerAssists: Morgan Rielly, Justin Holl · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 11:42CHICole GuttmanGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 18:44CHIMax DomiENAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:43CHIAndreas Athanasiou: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:48TORRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:16TORDavid Kampf: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:43CHIJason Dickinson: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:48TORMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews11:22
xG 0.99–0.57 (63%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Acciari – Aston-Reese8:26
xG 0.36–0.04 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Tavares – Marner10:37
xG 0.87–0.58 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Engvall – Kampf9:32
xG 0.27–0.65 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren13:16
xG 0.78–0.50 (61%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Brodie – Holl3:43
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Brodie – Timmins10:13
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Raddysh – Guttman10:49
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Athanasiou – Dickinson – Lafferty9:48
xG 0.53–0.71 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Katchouk – Johnson6:29
xG 0.02–0.23 (7%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Kane – Domi – Kurashev10:35
xG 0.49–0.94 (34%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Murphy15:57
xG 0.92–0.97 (49%)attempts 15–18goals 2–1
- McCabe – Jones17:30
xG 1.15–1.30 (47%)attempts 15–22goals 0–0
- Jones – Mitchell13:25
xG 0.22–0.80 (22%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).