Sun, Feb 19, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Winnipeg Jets 2, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 26 | 010 | 09 | 225 |
| NJD | 111 | 011 | 37 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:57WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk · Snap, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 15:16NJDDawson MercerAssists: Nico Hischier, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 17:09WPGNeal PionkAssists: Brenden Dillon, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 5:02NJDFabian ZetterlundAssists: Erik Haula · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 6:53NJDMiles WoodGWGAssists: Michael McLeod, Jesper Boqvist · Snap, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 19:04NJDDawson MercerENAssists: Erik Haula, Ryan Graves · Snap, 0.79 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:11WPGBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:58NJDBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:16NJDMiles Wood: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:17WPGMorgan Barron: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:48NJDTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStenlund – Barron – Kuhlman6:44
xG 0.61–0.40 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Appleton – Perfetti11:47
xG 0.50–0.40 (56%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Lowry – Ehlers7:58
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Maenalanen – Connor – Dubois7:33
xG 0.13–0.71 (15%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Samberg10:05
xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Morrissey – Pionk2:24
xG 0.43–0.26 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk11:40
xG 0.41–0.63 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Hischier – Mercer9:01
xG 0.98–0.19 (84%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Wood – McLeod – Boqvist7:05
xG 0.65–0.21 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Haula – Palat – Zetterlund10:26
xG 0.21–0.28 (42%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Bratt – Sharangovich – Hughes12:14
xG 0.62–1.14 (35%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Siegenthaler16:03
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Graves – Marino14:17
xG 0.83–0.66 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Hamilton – Severson2:11
xG 0.36–0.31 (53%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).