Mon, Feb 20, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Anaheim Ducks 3, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 215 | 011 | 16 | 00 | 332 |
| FLA | 016 | 214 | 123 | 12 | 455 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:46ANAMason McTavishAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Max Jones · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 15:20ANAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 2:12FLAEric StaalAssists: Radko Gudas · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 17:23FLAMarc StaalAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Eetu Luostarinen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 12:51ANADmitry KulikovAssists: John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 14:09FLARyan LombergAssists: Gustav Forsling, Nick Cousins · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 1:42FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:27FLARyan Lomberg: Interference2 min
- P1 4:27ANAJohn Klingberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:50FLAGustav Forsling: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:55ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:42ANASimon Benoit: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:42FLACarter Verhaeghe: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:21ANAJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:27FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Jones – McTavish10:13
xG 0.85–0.48 (64%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Vatrano – Lundeström9:50
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Carrick – Megna – Comtois6:35
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Grant – Strome – Zegras10:11
xG 0.14–1.30 (10%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Fowler13:26
xG 1.19–0.67 (64%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Benoit2:29
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Benoit11:27
xG 0.26–0.92 (22%)attempts 9–19goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Cousins – Lomberg10:57
xG 1.22–0.22 (85%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Luostarinen12:43
xG 1.11–0.64 (63%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Tkachuk2:07
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- White – Smith – Denisenko2:59
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura12:56
xG 1.01–0.03 (97%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling13:46
xG 1.56–0.94 (63%)attempts 23–13goals 1–0
- Montour – Forsling2:51
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).