Mon, Feb 20, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 010 | 08 | 131 |
| BOS | 110 | 114 | 18 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:09BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 19:30OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Dylan Gambrell · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 17:06BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 12:10BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:52OTTJacob Larsson: Interference2 min
- P1 9:16BOSCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:27BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:15BOSHampus Lindholm: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:15OTTClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:54OTTThomas Chabot: Interference2 min
- P1 16:27BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:33OTTTim Stützle: Holding2 min
- P3 7:30OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto10:26
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Watson – Joseph – Gambrell5:21
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Kelly – Greig6:24
xG 0.11–0.44 (19%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle10:55
xG 0.29–0.71 (29%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Chabot11:00
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Larsson3:05
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zub5:04
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk9:02
xG 0.67–0.12 (85%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha10:43
xG 0.72–0.19 (79%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Foligno – Coyle – Frederic2:22
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Coyle – Hall4:42
xG 0.06–0.02 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy9:26
xG 0.92–0.44 (68%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Grzelcyk – Carlo3:08
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Forbort – Carlo3:28
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).