Mon, Feb 20, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 29 | 13 | 422 |
| CGY | 012 | 113 | 210 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:59PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Noah Cates, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 7:30PHINicolas DeslauriersAssists: Cam York, Scott Laughton · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 8:55CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Dennis Gilbert, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 11:31PHITony DeAngeloAssists: Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 4:38CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Dillon Dube, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 8:54CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
- P3 11:33PHIWade AllisonGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Scott Laughton · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:21PHINick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:21CGYDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:13PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min
- P1 14:12CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:22PHICam York: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:11PHINick Seeler: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:08PHIPatrick Brown: Elbowing2 min
- P3 13:57CGYNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Konecny – Frost5:22
xG 0.49–0.03 (94%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Brown – Cates9:49
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost6:37
xG 0.05–0.26 (17%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Allison5:27
xG 0.36–0.73 (33%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – York10:14
xG 1.12–0.18 (86%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Provorov2:22
xG 0.00–0.35 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov14:43
xG 0.12–0.65 (15%)attempts 5–22goals 1–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane13:19
xG 1.29–0.14 (90%)attempts 22–4goals 2–1
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier11:57
xG 0.46–0.33 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Ruzicka5:53
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube10:04
xG 0.37–0.85 (30%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin5:21
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 8–2goals 2–1
- Andersson – Gilbert3:35
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Weegar – Zadorov6:06
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).