Tue, Feb 21, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 5, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 24 | 26 | 518 |
| NJD | 111 | 014 | 115 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54MTLJustin BarronAssists: Nick Suzuki, Rafael Harvey-Pinard · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 13:48NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jack Hughes · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 2:29MTLJohnathan KovacevicAssists: Jesse Ylonen, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 3:42MTLNick SuzukiGWGAssists: Mike Hoffman, Corey Schueneman · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 5:13MTLRem PitlickAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Christian Dvorak · Snap, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 11:58NJDDawson MercerPPAssists: Miles Wood, Jack Hughes · Snap, 0.27 xG4–2
- P3 16:13MTLMike MathesonENAssists: Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.35 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 8:09MTLChristian Dvorak: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:25NJDBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 0:40NJDDawson Mercer: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:33MTLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:27MTLJustin Barron: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard12:02
xG 1.12–0.15 (88%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Drouin – Ylonen2:27
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Armia – Drouin2:11
xG 0.01–0.07 (15%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Belzile – Pezzetta – Ylonen7:41
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 2–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris4:32
xG 0.49–0.04 (92%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Savard – Harris9:42
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Matheson – Barron13:40
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Palat – Zetterlund7:24
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 13–1goals 0–1
- Wood – McLeod – Boqvist8:14
xG 0.85–0.52 (62%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer10:53
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Bratt – Sharangovich – Hughes12:29
xG 0.36–0.67 (35%)attempts 9–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Hamilton10:30
xG 1.04–0.37 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler2:14
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Severson – Siegenthaler12:16
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).