Tue, Feb 21, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vancouver Canucks 4, Nashville Predators 5 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 013 | 210 | 214 | 02 | 0 | 439 |
| NSH | 18 | 27 | 19 | 02 | 1 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38NSHCole SmithAssists: Colton Sissons, Jeremy Lauzon · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 7:57NSHPhilip TomasinoPPAssists: Juuso Parssinen · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 12:47VANAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Ethan Bear, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 19:38VANSheldon DriesPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
- P2 19:50NSHNino NiederreiterAssists: Tommy Novak, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 7:44NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Cody Glass, Juuso Parssinen · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 18:53VANConor GarlandAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 19:44VANAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: J.T. Miller, Anthony Beauvillier · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NSH Mikael Granlund stopped
- 2. VAN Andrei Kuzmenko stopped
- 3. NSH Matt Duchene scored
- 4. NSH Roman Josi stopped
- 5. VAN Elias Pettersson stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:38VANConor Garland: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 8:49NSHDante Fabbro: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:28NSHRoman Josi: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:23VANJack Studnicka: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:52NSHDante Fabbro: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:48VANDakota Joshua: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:22NSHTanner Jeannot: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:56VANBrock Boeser: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeauvillier – Pettersson – Kuzmenko11:19
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Garland – Studnicka – Podkolzin2:46
xG 0.09–0.04 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Garland2:41
xG 0.06–0.30 (17%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Joshua – Dries – Aman4:31
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBear – Hughes14:40
xG 0.55–0.18 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Burroughs – Wolanin4:10
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Stillman4:16
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Jeannot – Smith7:36
xG 0.77–0.05 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Novak – Parssinen6:37
xG 0.64–0.31 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Trenin – Glass – Tomasino5:25
xG 0.06–0.00 (95%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Niederreiter – Novak2:16
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi11:54
xG 0.85–0.31 (73%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Lauzon2:38
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Lauzon11:00
xG 0.72–0.67 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).