Tue, Feb 21, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 19 | 120 | 05 | 02 | 0 | 236 |
| CHI | 19 | 012 | 113 | 05 | 1 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:26VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 12:39CHICole GuttmanAssists: Tyler Johnson, Taylor Raddysh · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 11:32VGKJack EichelAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 19:05CHITyler JohnsonPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Max Domi · Slap, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
- 2. CHI Andreas Athanasiou stopped
- 3. VGK Paul Cotter stopped
- 4. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 5. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 6. CHI Tyler Johnson scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:31VGKWilliam Carrier: Interference2 min
- P2 5:07CHIMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:07CHIMax Domi: Misconduct10 min
- P2 8:08VGKKeegan Kolesar: Interference2 min
- P3 18:05VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKolesar – Roy – Howden10:01
xG 0.97–0.26 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Amadio11:18
xG 0.59–0.58 (50%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Kessel – Stephenson – Carrier9:51
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Eichel – Cotter11:31
xG 0.36–0.64 (36%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo16:07
xG 1.23–0.33 (79%)attempts 26–10goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore16:24
xG 0.72–0.61 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Hague – Whitecloud14:20
xG 0.64–0.96 (40%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Raddysh – Guttman10:17
xG 0.59–0.45 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Athanasiou – Dickinson – Lafferty9:25
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Seney – Katchouk6:29
xG 0.38–0.47 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Domi – Kurashev13:57
xG 0.56–0.80 (41%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jones15:44
xG 1.19–0.73 (62%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Johnson – Murphy7:07
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Murphy – Jones2:04
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).