Tue, Feb 21, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 17 | 010 | 226 |
| EDM | 15 | 05 | 317 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:01PHINoah CatesAssists: Wade Allison, Nicolas Deslauriers · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 19:57EDMTyson BarriePPAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 11:37PHIOwen TippettAssists: Kevin Hayes, Olle Lycksell · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 6:49EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 12:39EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 17:35EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:27EDMBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:54PHIJoel Farabee: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:04PHIWade Allison: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:33EDMRyan McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:58PHIOlle Lycksell: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 17:12EDMEvan Bouchard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Hayes – Lycksell – Farabee8:40
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Laughton – Allison – Cates9:31
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Brown – Bellows4:23
xG 0.01–0.21 (5%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost10:00
xG 0.54–0.94 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – York2:48
xG 0.35–0.08 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – York11:00
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Seeler – DeAngelo11:30
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid8:26
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto4:26
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Shore – Ryan – Puljujarvi6:17
xG 0.35–0.25 (59%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto2:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (89%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Kulak3:25
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Nurse – Desharnais2:29
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Broberg5:25
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).