Wed, Feb 22, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Winnipeg Jets 1, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 112 | 05 | 126 |
| NYI | 111 | 04 | 17 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:35NYISebastian AhoAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 4:30WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 9:57NYISimon HolmstromGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:22WPGJosh Morrissey: Interference2 min
- P1 15:53WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:53NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:24NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:21WPGMorgan Barron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:54NYIArnaud Durandeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:19WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:43NYIRoss Johnston: Holding2 min
- P3 12:51NYIOtto Koivula: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:29WPGDylan DeMelo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Barron – Kuhlman6:14
xG 0.54–0.01 (99%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Dubois7:33
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Maenalanen – Stenlund3:11
xG 0.02–0.04 (39%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Appleton9:22
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Samberg6:19
xG 0.52–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk8:37
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Pionk2:01
xG 0.06–0.08 (45%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Fasching – Durandeau6:36
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Holmstrom2:20
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Johnston – Koivula – Holmstrom2:39
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Nelson7:25
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech9:27
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Romanov2:24
xG 0.31–0.06 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Aho – Dobson9:36
xG 0.16–0.24 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).