Wed, Feb 22, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 08 | 310 | 15 | 423 |
| DAL | 212 | 17 | 013 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:58DALTyler SeguinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 14:17DALJamie BennAssists: Denis Gurianov · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 4:33DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 10:10CHIMax DomiPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 15:24CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Max Domi · Snap, 0.24 xG2–3
- P2 18:05CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 4:13CHIMax DomiGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:11CHIJason Dickinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:27CHIJake McCabe: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:44CHIBrett Seney: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:27DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:51DALRoope Hintz: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Domi – Kurashev11:11
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 3–1
- Athanasiou – Dickinson – Lafferty10:30
xG 0.84–0.74 (53%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Seney – Katchouk7:44
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Raddysh – Guttman11:16
xG 0.06–0.29 (17%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Jones15:33
xG 0.77–0.47 (62%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Murphy – Phillips13:58
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Johnson – Murphy2:39
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:55
xG 0.45–0.35 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Seguin – Faksa – Marchment2:25
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston2:59
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
- Benn – Gurianov – Johnston6:55
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Heiskanen10:45
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 17–10goals 1–2
- Hakanpää – Lindell13:25
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist5:52
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).