Thu, Feb 23, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Anaheim Ducks 4, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 06 | 210 | 25 | 421 |
| WSH | 112 | 115 | 016 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:41WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 7:09ANAIsac LundeströmAssists: Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 9:07WSHNick JensenAssists: Nic Dowd, Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 9:51ANATroy TerryAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 2:15ANAJakob SilfverbergGWGAssists: Maxime Comtois, Colton White · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 18:29ANADerek GrantENAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.43 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:45ANAMax Jones: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:06ANARyan Strome: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:55WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:01WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:01ANASimon Benoit: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:41WSHDylan McIlrath: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:41WSHDylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:41ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:48ANADerek Grant: Holding2 min
- P3 14:52WSHT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Vatrano – Lundeström – Leason7:02
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Terry – Jones – McTavish4:59
xG 0.24–0.34 (42%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Grant – Carrick – Comtois8:06
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Strome – Zegras5:17
xG 0.17–0.39 (31%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Benoit2:24
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Beaulieu – White12:11
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Benoit10:52
xG 0.29–0.60 (33%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Dowd – Aube-Kubel8:45
xG 0.67–0.05 (93%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Oshie – Wilson – Strome3:02
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Sheary8:06
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Oshie – Milano – Strome5:46
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Fehérváry15:28
xG 0.98–0.36 (73%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk14:51
xG 0.68–0.64 (51%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Irwin – McIlrath8:20
xG 0.50–0.53 (48%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).