Thu, Feb 23, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Los Angeles Kings 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 29 | 06 | 17 | 00 | 322 |
| NJD | 07 | 112 | 28 | 15 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Sean Durzi, Adrian Kempe · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 11:35LAKViktor ArvidssonAssists: Kevin Fiala, Mikey Anderson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 16:44NJDTomas TatarAssists: Dawson Mercer · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 2:23NJDDawson MercerAssists: Tomas Tatar, Kevin Bahl · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 15:41LAKSean DurziAssists: Anze Kopitar, Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 19:21NJDNico HischierAssists: Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 2:30NJDDawson MercerGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Vitek Vanecek · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:43LAKQuinton Byfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:46NJDYegor Sharangovich: Holding2 min
- P2 14:22LAKKevin Fiala: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:57LAKGabriel Vilardi: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:46LAKGabriel Vilardi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Arvidsson12:46
xG 0.77–0.61 (56%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield14:16
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Vilardi – Iafallo – Lizotte10:27
xG 0.25–0.91 (21%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Anderson-Dolan – Kupari – Kaliyev5:02
xG 0.00–0.76 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Roy – Durzi13:56
xG 0.59–0.56 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Doughty – Anderson20:08
xG 0.70–0.96 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Walker – Bjornfot10:54
xG 0.39–0.97 (29%)attempts 10–20goals 0–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Palat – Boqvist5:15
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Wood – McLeod – Zetterlund6:45
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer12:30
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Haula – Bratt – Hughes3:21
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Bahl10:21
xG 1.30–0.09 (94%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler16:07
xG 0.70–0.62 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Graves – Marino14:14
xG 0.33–0.41 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).