Thu, Feb 23, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Rangers 1, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 113 | 08 | 131 |
| DET | 17 | 28 | 18 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:33DETAndrew CoppAssists: Michael Rasmussen, David Perron · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 6:06NYRVincent TrocheckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 8:18DETFilip ZadinaGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 18:02DETMichael RasmussenAssists: David Perron, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.35 xG1–3
- P3 4:51DETFilip HronekPPAssists: Andrew Copp, Dominik Kubalik · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:33DETFilip Hronek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:45NYRRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:12NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 7:58NYRTyler Motte: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:45DETMichael Rasmussen: Charging2 min
- P3 11:45DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:45NYRAdam Fox: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:48NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:48NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:48DETJake Walman: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Trocheck – Panarin11:03
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vesey8:58
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Motte2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière8:51
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:19
xG 0.76–0.29 (72%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Schneider7:24
xG 0.34–0.07 (84%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Trouba – Mikkola3:01
xG 0.01–0.02 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Copp – Rasmussen8:02
xG 1.17–0.27 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Sundqvist – Suter – Zadina8:42
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Bertuzzi – Larkin10:07
xG 0.10–0.56 (15%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
- Vrana – Fabbri – Veleno7:16
xG 0.19–0.89 (17%)attempts 2–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Hronek13:59
xG 1.06–0.88 (55%)attempts 11–23goals 1–0
- Walman – Seider11:13
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Maatta2:13
xG 0.01–0.06 (17%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).