Thu, Feb 23, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vancouver Canucks 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 014 | 011 | 214 | 12 | 341 |
| STL | 16 | 17 | 05 | 04 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:29STLAlexey ToropchenkoSHAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 6:45STLTyler TuckerAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 9:08VANJ.T. MillerSHAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 19:31VANAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 4:45VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Ethan Bear · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:07STLTyler Pitlick: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:26VANGuillaume Brisebois: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:27STLRobert Bortuzzo: Holding2 min
- P2 6:45VANConor Garland: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 17:11STLIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:44VANSheldon Dries: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:44STLNathan Walker: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:17STLRobert Thomas: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 7:42VANNils Aman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Walker won the faceoff against Aman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeauvillier – Pettersson – Kuzmenko7:01
xG 0.79–0.10 (88%)attempts 14–3goals 0–1
- Miller – Boeser – Garland10:52
xG 0.50–0.05 (91%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Joshua – Studnicka – Aman8:25
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Podkolzin – Kuzmenko2:19
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBear – Hughes11:51
xG 0.55–0.03 (94%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Wolanin6:54
xG 0.60–0.09 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Myers – Brisebois11:16
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Saad – Kyrou – Thomas8:01
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Leivo – Blais – Brown4:26
xG 0.01–0.11 (8%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko8:13
xG 0.09–0.38 (20%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Barbashev8:53
xG 0.16–0.68 (19%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Leddy – Parayko8:57
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Leddy – Faulk6:46
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Parayko2:03
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).