Thu, Feb 23, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 6, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 314 | 29 | 631 |
| SJS | 04 | 111 | 19 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24NSHNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 1:28NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Philip Tomasino · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 8:37SJSNico SturmSHAssists: Steven Lorentz · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 13:34NSHMikael GranlundGWGAssists: Philip Tomasino, Cody Glass · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 19:31NSHYakov TreninSHAssists: Cole Smith · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–1
- P3 0:50SJSMartin KautAssists: Tomas Hertl, Michael Eyssimont · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 10:48NSHNino NiederreiterAssists: Matt Duchene, Tommy Novak · Backhand, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 14:00NSHTommy NovakPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.14 xG6–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:57SJSAlexander Barabanov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:45NSHCody Glass: Interference2 min
- P2 8:05SJSErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:05NSHKevin Gravel: Interference2 min
- P3 4:02NSHTanner Jeannot: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:17NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:13SJSMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:10SJSMatt Benning: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:10NSHNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
- P3 19:12NSHRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Niederreiter – Novak14:01
xG 0.63–0.29 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Sissons – Jeannot – Smith7:02
xG 0.38–0.21 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Granlund – Glass – Tomasino7:01
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Trenin – Sherwood – Parssinen4:11
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi17:10
xG 0.91–0.20 (82%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Josi – Ekholm2:16
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Gravel – Fabbro9:58
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Eyssimont – Barabanov8:08
xG 0.25–0.06 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Bonino – Svechnikov – Sturm2:57
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bonino – Hertl – Kaut3:47
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hertl – Gregor – Kaut4:14
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Ferraro9:06
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Benning2:07
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – MacDonald2:49
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).