Fri, Feb 24, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Los Angeles Kings 3, New York Islanders 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 012 | 313 | 04 | 329 |
| NYI | 05 | 18 | 15 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:40LAKPhillip DanaultUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–0
- P2 8:05LAKArthur KaliyevAssists: Rasmus Kupari, Jaret Anderson-Dolan · Snap, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 12:14LAKGabriel VilardiGWGAssists: Alex Iafallo, Alexander Edler · Slap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 16:34NYINoah DobsonPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Anders Lee · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 15:23NYIAdam PelechAssists: Ryan Pulock, Matt Martin · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:20LAKKevin Fiala: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:29NYICasey Cizikas: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:00LAKSean Walker: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:43NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:24LAKPhillip Danault: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Arvidsson11:21
xG 1.33–0.74 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Anderson-Dolan – Kupari – Kaliyev5:42
xG 0.36–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Vilardi – Iafallo – Lizotte10:17
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield13:27
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson19:07
xG 1.31–0.47 (73%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Edler – Walker12:46
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Roy – Durzi13:46
xG 0.44–0.65 (40%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Lee – Horvat7:45
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Holmstrom2:27
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Fasching – Durandeau9:23
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Johnston – Koivula – Holmstrom2:56
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock3:41
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech10:45
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson3:02
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).