Sat, Feb 25, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 415 | 123 | 547 |
| CBJ | 19 | 311 | 26 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 1:33CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Jack Roslovic · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 3:24CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 5:56CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Adam Boqvist, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 6:40EDMWarren FoegeleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 9:42EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.18 xG2–4
- P2 12:51EDMConnor McDavidSHAssists: Brett Kulak · Snap, 0.17 xG3–4
- P2 14:42EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Brett Kulak, Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 9:01CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Patrik Laine, Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.10 xG4–5
- P3 14:56CBJJack RoslovicGWGAssists: Gavin Bayreuther · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–6
- P3 17:04EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:42EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:04CBJJohnny Gaudreau: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:33CBJSean Kuraly: Misconduct10 min
- P1 17:50EDMZach Hyman: Holding2 min
- P1 19:52EDMVincent Desharnais: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:50CBJEmil Bemstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:14CBJErik Gudbranson: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:49EDMCody Ceci: Interference2 min
- P2 13:19EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:19CBJNick Blankenburg: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:41CBJErik Gudbranson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid10:01
xG 0.89–0.15 (85%)attempts 21–4goals 1–0
- Foegele – Yamamoto – McLeod4:02
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele – Yamamoto4:32
xG 0.12–0.36 (24%)attempts 8–5goals 0–2
- Shore – Ryan – Puljujarvi4:34
xG 0.03–0.35 (9%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Kulak8:07
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Bouchard – Broberg6:02
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- Nurse – Desharnais3:12
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko12:46
xG 0.96–0.65 (60%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
- Roslovic – Laine – Johnson7:22
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 3–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson9:19
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
- Bemstrom – Foudy – Sillinger5:20
xG 0.14–0.77 (15%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Blankenburg2:51
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Bayreuther – Blankenburg2:27
xG 0.21–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Berni2:29
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).