Sat, Feb 25, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 3, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 09 | 210 | 326 |
| WSH | 18 | 414 | 15 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 8:00NYRBarclay GoodrowAssists: Tyler Motte · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 3:16WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Dylan Strome, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 7:05WSHTom WilsonAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 12:52WSHSonny MilanoGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie · Backhand, 0.59 xG1–4
- P2 18:19WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Martin Fehérváry · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 6:49NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 13:22WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–6
- P3 19:32NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.19 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:37NYRBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:16NYRBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:16WSHT.J. Oshie: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:38WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P1 9:41WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:45NYRNiko Mikkola: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:15NYRFilip Chytil: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:15WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:22WSHTom Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:46WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:46WSHDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Vesey – Motte4:43
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko4:27
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Chytil – Lafrenière3:27
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Trocheck – Panarin10:50
xG 0.82–0.80 (50%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMikkola – Schneider4:25
xG 0.72–0.26 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller9:10
xG 0.73–0.40 (65%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Trouba – Mikkola2:01
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Milano – Strome8:12
xG 0.49–0.13 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Eller – Dowd – Aube-Kubel7:24
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Smith – Sheary8:08
xG 0.04–0.14 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:31
xG 0.80–1.23 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Irwin – McIlrath12:53
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk11:48
xG 0.98–1.04 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry14:33
xG 0.52–0.60 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).